Unusual Signs III

Unusual should probably be closer to 'disturbing,' but it's interesting to see someone connected with the administration chiming in about the perennial "bomb Iran" rumors. Good news: it won't be us. Bad news: it could still happen. Doing it during the lame duck phrase is rather clever but a pretty terrible plate for your first Presidential course.

First off, I'm skeptical Israel has the power to pull it off and make it a 'finishing blow.' Iran is a big country. Iran has a lot more than one reactor. Iran has some pretty decent air defense equipment. I'm sure Israel could hit a few sites but... There's quite a few. My guess is a strike at Natanz, maybe coupled with Eshafan and Bushehr would be able to pretty much take out Iranian nuclear capability for the next few years. But such an attack by the Israelis, if it does not thoroughly destroy Iran's nuclear infrastructure, would likely only encourage Iran to get an actual nuclear weapon, and not just an ambiguous nuclear program.

I think Bolton's point about the Arabs has merit. After all, Israel bombed Syria without a massive reprisal, and I would imagine even fewer Arab countries would have much sympathy for Iran (with the exception of Iraq). Nevertheless, good luck to Israel resolving anything in Lebanon (and good luck to America in Iraq, most likely) should such a strike go through.