The End of Guano

Once, 50,000 people from three countries died in a war over bird droppings.

Well, that's an exaggeration. But I couldn't help but think of the War of the Pacific when I read the NYT story on Peruvian guano. There have a been many conflicts fought over it - and though there is a slight revival now, guano will likely never move states to war again. The NYT article mentions guano as a parable for oil, but I think there's a key question if we go down that road - is the 21st century for oil going to look like the 19th for guano, or the 21st century for guano? Obviously it's not that clear cut. But if you believe the proposition that oil has been historically cheap given its world importance, then chances are we're only at the beginning of major resource conflicts for it. Or not.

As a side note, the guano wars provide an interesting frame of reference for the 21st century's potential battles over petroleum - many of the conflicts were not massive, land-based affairs like the War of the Pacific but naval skirmishes. The resource conflicts for oil, should they become more common, will likely (and arguably already have) feature many of the same characteristics. This is why I'm hesitant to downplay the role of the navy in modern strategy - just because the US navy is currently unrivaled does not mean we should forgo a deterrent against competing states on a regional scale.