A new Great Game?

Well, it's August 18th and the Russians don't exactly seem to be withdrawing... What a surprise. Indeed, even as Russia slightly reduces its combat presence, it reserves the right to resume them and has fortified its positions in South Ossetia and the Georgian highway system. Essentially, Russia has ensured that if fighting resumes in Georgia, it will completely crush the government in Tblisi. Russian troop deployments along the strategic highway to Georgia, along with the deployment of SS-21 SRBMs to separatist regions (missiles that would be able to strike virtually anywhere in Georgia) compound on Russia's strengths while compensating for its weaknesses. Controlling the highways of Georgia provides a major strategic advantage in any land battle. The ballistic missiles, on the other hand, would allow Russia to launch on Georgian targets without having to risk its air force, which, regardless of the actual number of aircraft downed (anywhere between 4 and 21), significantly underperformed.

This may provide some additional explanation for Russia's anger at recent developments in Poland. Even though in 2007 only 30% of Poles supported the Ballistic Missile Defense program, support has jumped to 58% and the government has agreed to host interceptors. Now that Russia has put military force back on the table, Eastern Europe is unquestionably looking for help. However, to call BMD meaningful help for Eastern Europe or a check on Russia is to misinterpret the situation. BMD - in its current form - poses no significant threat to Russia's strategic arsenal - with only a few dozen interceptors, it cannot hold a candle to hundreds of Russian missiles that could be targeted against Europe. Nor does it endanger the world by altering the balance of MAD - Russian missiles targeted against America would completely bypass Europe and travel over the Arctic Circle. This is why NORAD's EW systems for defending the American mainland require the cooperation of Canada more than they do Europe.

What the new agreement does provide that it did not before is enhanced military cooperation - access to new weapon systems that would provide real gains for Poland's secrity. Patriot missiles and other advanced arms would top whatever aerial embarrassments the Russian air force suffered in Georgia. Perhaps in light of these favorable terms for Poland, Ukraine has offered to participate in the BMD program as well. Given that Ukrainian greivances about Russia directly threaten Russian military power, Ukraine has a major incentive to bulk up its miltiary and, preferably, secure NATO entry. If America continues such a strategy against Russia, the straining of relations between the US and countries like France and Germany may worsen - this gap may prove more significant than the one America opened with the invasion of Iraq.

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To shift direction, here's a few other items of interest...

• There have been no protests at the Beijing games. 74 of the 77 applications were withdrawn, while the government refused or delayed the other three. The supposed liberalizing effect of the Games has yet to be seen. (As far as I've noticed, I've seen Americans usually apathetic about politics responding very negatively to the Chinese. But the Olympics, of course, are likely meant more to impress the Chinese people than placate the world's concerns.)
• Pervez Musharraf is stepping down from the Presidency. It's too early to say whether his replacement will be a boon or a hindrance to long term American interests in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
• Disturbing news from Iraq - the Maliki government may turn against the Sunni "awakener" militias.