Busy Brazil

Attention to South American security politics tends to gravitate towards its most colorful and belligerent constituent state, Venezuela. With its oil reserves, multi-billion defense contracts, vocal opposition to US and Colombian policies, and occasional saber-rattling, it is easy to overlook the emerging power broker on the continent and wider Latin American affairs (besides, of course, the US), Brazil.

When Manuel Zelaya chose to return to Tegucigalpa, he did not go with Hugo Chavez, who previously threatened to militarily depose the transitional government. He stays in the embassy of Brazil. While controversy follows Venezuela's decision to purchase old missiles, tanks, and aircraft from Russia for $2.2 billion, Brazil is making a $4-7 billion deal to purchase state-of-the-art Rafale fighters from France, and is also seeking to buy submarines. Of course, Brazilian procurement politics mean efforts to produce its own nuclear submarines and helicopters will intensify, and fears of a Latin American arms race have ensued.

Most recently, the Brazilian Vice President, Jose Alencar, suggested that Brazil should seek nuclear weapons. Alencar has served as defense minister and ideologically, is a businessman of the Brazilian center-right, who Lula de Silva brought on to calm fears of his leftism. He is not the final word on Brazilian policy, but given Brazil's history and its current arms buildup, it is an opinion worth considering.

Brazil and Argentina pursued sophisticated and simultaneous nuclear arms programs during the Cold War. They bilaterally chose to scale them down for peaceful purposes, the but the capability to militarize these efforts remains. Taken in context with Brazil's role in the Honduran dispute and its military build-up, government officials pondering a nuclear program is an important reminder that even in a relatively peaceful region, military strength is still a vital element of national power. Democratic states pursuing idealistic goals (like supporting democracy abroad) are not content to rely on their virtue or economies in the pursuit of their national interest.

That Brazil might seek nuclear arms and a strong military, the accoutrement of a "20th century" power, even though the thought of this clearly bothers its neighbors, while seeking a greater role in Latin America and in the world (perhaps as a Latin American UN Security Council representative), is hardly contradictory. While the US declares a new "21st century" of shared interests, cooperation and de-nuclearization, Brazil seeks to be recognized as a great power on its own terms. Of course, Brazil is not about to embark on a war against anyone. But as new powers rise, let's remember that hard power, not just wealth or international goodwill, is still on the agenda.